Incorporating Variability into Transportation Modeling
Your transportation policy defines the framework upon which all transportation decisions will be made, so it’s imperative to construct it in a manner that is not overly constricting.
Most analysts still rely heavily on statistical averages because it’s easy to do and it’s what they’ve always done, yet this ‘deterministic’ approach ignores the variability that underlies nearly every aspect of transportation. Averages rarely reflect reality, so strategic planning should utilize a ‘stochastic’ approach that’s based on calculated probabilities.
The latest transportation modeling technology allows for combined stochastic optimization and simulation, which allows analysts to incorporate known variability in developing the transportation policy. Only by taking variability into account will you be able to create an operationally-resilient transportation policy that reflects the reality of an ever-changing world.